The Character Popularity Effect: Do Luffy Cards Really Hold Value Better?

Every collector has a gut feeling that Luffy cards "just hold value better." It is one of the eight ingredients in our Long-Term score — character popularity carries an 18% weight, drawn from the official 2021 One Piece worldwide popularity poll. But a weight in a formula is a hypothesis, not a fact. So we tested it against the data: does a card's character actually predict how its price moves?

We took the cheapest listed near-mint English copy of every tracked card on 7 April 2026 and again on 20 July 2026 — a 15-week window with 3,036 cards priced at both ends — and grouped them by their character's rank in that poll. The result is one of the cleanest signals we have ever pulled out of this market.

The market rose — but popularity decided how much

First, context: this was a strongly rising market. Across all 3,036 cards the aggregate floor value rose +72.5% over the 15 weeks. But, as always, the median card gained nothing — 626 cards rose, 480 fell, and 1,930 were flat. The gains were concentrated, and where they concentrated is the whole story.

Here is the market split into four popularity tiers. To strip out penny-card noise (sub-€5 cards where the "price" is one seller's whim), this table covers only cards worth at least €5 at the start:

The median ladder is almost perfectly monotonic: +33.3% → +9.1% → +7.1% → 0.0% as popularity falls. But look at the last two columns, because that is the part collectors underrate. A card of a top-10 character had a 76% chance of rising and only a 17% chance of falling. A card of an unranked character was a coin flip — 46% up, 45% down — even in a market that was broadly green. The popularity premium is not just bigger upside; it is downside protection. That is exactly what "holds value better" is supposed to mean, and here it is in the data.

Character by character

Zooming into the marquee names — again, median change across each character's versions worth at least €5 at the start, so one chase card can't carry the whole line:

Luffy is simply in his own tier. Not one high-end card dragging up an average — the typical Luffy card worth €5+ gained 80% in 15 weeks, more than double the next-best Straw Hat. The individual moves are relentless across every price bracket: a Luffy went €30 → €100 (+233%), another €84 → €240 (+186%), one Manga-rare copy climbed €6,500 → €15,500 (+138%), and a mid-tier alt went €580 → €1,300 (+124%). When the June report noted that a single Luffy card accounted for ~28% of the market's entire euro gain, this is the structural reason: demand for Luffy runs deeper than for any other character in the game.

The relationship is real but noisy below the very top. Robin (#6) and Hancock (#7) outran higher-ranked Zoro and Nami; Sabo (#10), Yamato (#11) and Doflamingo (#20) barely moved on a median basis despite being popular. Popularity is a strong signal in aggregate — the tier ladder proves that — but for any single character it competes with how many desirable versions exist, which sets they were printed in, and whether their big chase cards happened to be in a hype cycle. It is one factor, not destiny.

An honest wrinkle: averages vs medians

If you total up euro value instead of taking medians, the "Popular #11–30" tier actually posts a bigger value-weighted gain (+133%) than the Top 10 (+65%). That looks like it contradicts everything above — until you see why. Value-weighting hands the result to a handful of expensive chase cards: a couple of Yamato and Hancock high-end variants tripling swings the whole tier. That is genuine information about where the biggest euro moves happened, but it is a bad way to answer "does popularity help a typical card of mine." For that question the median and the win/loss rate — which point cleanly and consistently toward popularity — are the honest measures. We report both so you can see the difference rather than pick the flattering one.

The other side: unpopular cards fell even in a bull market

The clearest evidence that popularity protects value comes from the cards that lost money while everything else rose. Among unranked characters, several expensive cards bled over the window: the Gorosei villains from recent sets — Saint Nusjuro (€550 → €490), Saint Topman Warcury (€470 → €420), Saint Marcus Mars (€600 → €538) — all slid roughly 10%, as did Sugar (€80 → €70) and a Hody Jones alt. These are not bulk commons; they are chase cards of characters almost nobody voted for. This echoes the villain-SP sell-off we documented inside the Anime 25th Collection in June: when sentiment cools, the money leaves low-popularity characters first, regardless of rarity or price tag.

What to actually do with this

• Popularity is a floor, not a lottery ticket. Its biggest effect this window wasn't outsized upside — it was cutting the chance of a loss roughly in half (17% vs 45%). If you hold for the long run, popular characters are where the risk is lowest.
• Luffy deserves the premium the market gives him. Across 44 versions and every price bracket, the demand is structural, not a fad. That is also why Luffy chase cards rarely look "cheap" — you are paying for the deepest buyer pool in the game.
• Be extra sceptical of expensive cards of unpopular characters. A high price tag on a niche villain is the setup that lost money even in a +72% market. Rarity without demand is a trap — check the character before the rarity stamp.
• Don't over-trust popularity alone. It is 18% of the LT score for a reason. Sabo and Yamato are proof that a good poll rank doesn't guarantee a good year. Pair it with pull rate, scarcity and velocity — which is exactly what the Long-Term Deals page already does for you.

Methodology: prices are the cheapest listed NM English copy on CardMarket per card version, compared between 7 April and 20 July 2026 for the 3,036 versions with data at both endpoints. Characters are assigned from the official 2021 One Piece worldwide popularity poll (the same source as the LT score's popularity input); combo cards take their highest-ranked character. "Went up / down" count moves greater than ±2%. Tier and character breakdowns are restricted to cards worth ≥€5 at the start to remove penny-card noise. Value-weighted figures are dominated by a few high-value cards and are reported alongside medians, not instead of them. High-end prices reflect thin markets. This report is informational only and not financial advice.