The One Piece TCG Market in August 2026 — Monthly Report
Welcome to the third edition of our monthly market report. Same data as last month — OPMT's own daily price history for every tracked card — but this month we changed how we read it, and we want to show you why. August is the month where the simple method breaks, and if you only look at the headline you will draw exactly the wrong conclusion.
The headline says −1.6%. The headline is wrong.
Add up the cheapest listed NM English copy of all 3,819 cards with price data at both ends of the month and the tracked market went from €242,344 to €238,469 — a −1.6% drift. Flat. Boring. A month where nothing happened.
Except the breadth underneath it is not flat at all:
- 321 cards up, 674 down, 2,824 unchanged. Twice as many losers as winners.
- Among cards worth at least €5, it was 160 up against 476 down. That is a 3-to-1 decline ratio — the worst breadth we have recorded in three months of these reports.
- Those 2,824 "unchanged" cards have a median price of €0.02. They are bulk commons pinned to the CardMarket floor. They cannot go down. Counting them as "stable" is how a falling market looks calm.
So why is the total only −1.6%? Because 79 cards priced above €500 hold €205,766 of the €242,344 — 85% of the entire tracked market value sits in 2% of the cards. Narrow it further and it gets starker: the 34 Manga rares and 37 SSPs we track are 71 cards holding €185,888, or 77% of the market. When those seventy-odd cards wobble, the index wobbles, and the other 3,700 cards are rounding errors.
That would be fine if those seventy prices were trustworthy. They are not, and that is the most useful thing we learned this month.
The noise test: why month-end snapshots lie at the top
A €7,000 card usually has one, two, maybe three copies listed in all of Europe. When the cheapest one sells or gets pulled, the "price" jumps to the next listing — which might be 4× higher. When it comes back, the price collapses again. Nothing about the card changed. So we measured it: for every card, we compared its intra-month range (high to low across all 31 days) against its net move (1 Aug to 31 Aug). If a card swung 25% during the month but ended 8% down, the 8% is mostly an accident of which day you looked.
| Price band | Cards | Median range | Median net move | Noise ratio | Range > 3× net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| €1–5 | 290 | 11.0% | 8.3% | 1.3× | 7% |
| €5–20 | 313 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 2.1× | 25% |
| €20–100 | 254 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 2.1× | 25% |
| €100–500 | 86 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.1× | 30% |
| €500+ | 82 | 24.5% | 8.7% | 2.8× | 35% |
Read the bottom row carefully. The typical €500+ card travelled 24.5% during August to end up 8.7% away from where it started, and more than a third of them moved three times further intra-month than their net change. The cheap end is the honest end: at €1–5 the range barely exceeds the net move, because those cards have dozens of listings and the floor is real.
The single cleanest example is the SSP Leader Yamato (OP06-022, EB02), which our raw table proudly reports as +332% (€1,621 → €7,000) — the third-biggest gain of the month. Its actual daily series in August: €1,621, €1,626, €1,622, €7,000, €1,626, €7,000, €7,199, €7,221, €7,000. It bounced between two levels all month. There is one cheap copy that keeps appearing and vanishing, and 31 August happened to land on an expensive day. It sold 3 copies all month. That is not a +332% rally, it is a coin flip — and on its own it is the reason EB02 shows +4.8%. Strip Yamato out and EB02 was −2.7%.
The real August: 219 losers for every 48 gainers
So for everything below, we use a stricter lens. A move counts only if the card started above €5 (a real market, not bulk), had at least 25 priced days, moved at least 12%, and — the important filter — its intra-month range stayed under 2.5× its net move, meaning the price actually walked somewhere instead of oscillating.
On that basis August produced 48 genuine gainers and 219 genuine losers. That is the month. Not −1.6%.
And the decline was near-universal by set. Of the 25 sets with enough liquid cards to measure, 23 had a negative median card. Only EB01 and OP08 managed to hold flat. Not one set had a positive median.
Set-by-set: every set we track
Two columns matter here and they often disagree. Median card is what happened to a typical liquid card in that set — the number that describes your collection. Set value is the aggregate, which is dominated by the one or two chase cards and inherits all the noise above. Where they diverge, the median is telling the truth. Every version is credited to the set whose packs actually contain it, not its card-number prefix.
| Set | Liquid cards | Median card | Up / Down | Set value | Copies sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST01 Straw Hat Crew | 13 | −20.0% | 1 / 10 | −21.7% | 556 |
| OP16 The Time of Battle | 34 | −19.6% | 1 / 30 | −14.4% | 11,224 |
| ST03 Seven Warlords | 6 | −15.4% | 2 / 4 | −21.5% | 228 |
| ST21 EX Gear 5 | 6 | −13.7% | 0 / 4 | −14.6% | 534 |
| OP15 Adventure on Kami's Island | 46 | −13.6% | 6 / 40 | −13.5% | 7,369 |
| OP12 Legacy of the Master | 35 | −12.2% | 3 / 29 | −8.0% | 4,042 |
| OP05 Awakening of the New Era | 23 | −10.0% | 7 / 16 | −17.9% | 1,783 |
| EB03 Heroines Edition | 31 | −9.9% | 3 / 21 | −2.2% | 3,152 |
| ST13 Three Brothers | 8 | −8.7% | 0 / 5 | −24.6% | 530 |
| OP14 The Azure Sea's Seven | 40 | −7.9% | 3 / 27 | −3.2% | 6,550 |
| OP10 Royal Blood | 27 | −5.8% | 7 / 16 | +2.8% | 3,275 |
| EB02 Anime 25th Collection | 42 | −5.0% | 11 / 25 | +4.8% | 1,844 |
| OP04 Kingdoms of Intrigue | 12 | −4.7% | 2 / 8 | −4.7% | 1,786 |
| PRB02 The Best Vol.2 | 57 | −4.5% | 10 / 32 | +9.7% | 7,783 |
| OP07 500 Years in the Future | 20 | −4.0% | 5 / 13 | −2.0% | 2,134 |
| OP13 Carrying on His Will | 53 | −2.4% | 13 / 29 | +6.7% | 7,110 |
| OP06 Wings of the Captain | 24 | −2.0% | 6 / 15 | −2.6% | 1,831 |
| OP11 A Fist of Divine Speed | 30 | −1.4% | 7 / 17 | −20.2% | 3,366 |
| OP09 Emperors in the New World | 30 | −0.8% | 7 / 15 | +10.2% | 2,341 |
| PRB01 The Best | 65 | −0.6% | 16 / 33 | +4.1% | 2,334 |
| OP03 Pillars of Strength | 22 | −0.5% | 3 / 12 | −6.0% | 1,190 |
| OP02 Paramount War | 25 | −0.3% | 3 / 12 | −12.9% | 1,334 |
| OP01 Romance Dawn | 29 | −0.2% | 9 / 13 | −11.3% | 1,469 |
| EB01 Memorial Collection | 15 | 0.0% | 3 / 7 | +12.2% | 948 |
| OP08 Two Legends | 26 | 0.0% | 12 / 12 | +0.5% | 2,106 |
What each set was actually doing
OP16 The Time of Battle was the story of the month. Median liquid card −19.6%, with 1 card up and 30 down — the most one-sided set we have ever printed in this report. And it did that while being the most-traded set in the game: 11,224 detected copies, 13.8% of all volume. Heavy volume plus falling prices is the textbook supply-flood signature we flagged for OP16 in July, now in full swing. Its meta alt arts led the way down — Sakazuki OP16-065 −53%, Mr.3 OP16-056 −50%, Luffy OP16-034 −45%, Shiryu OP16-108 −41%.
OP15 Adventure on Kami's Island (−13.6%, 6 up / 40 down) is OP16 one step further along: still the third-most-traded set at 7,369 copies, still falling. Two consecutive sets in simultaneous decline is the clearest sign that the pressure is supply, not sentiment.
OP12 Legacy of the Master (−12.2%) was the surprise. It is a year-old set that should have finished deflating, yet 29 of its 35 liquid cards fell — Jewelry Bonney OP12-118 dropped −46% in its alt art and −44% in its SEC version simultaneously. When two different printings of the same card fall together, that is genuine demand loss, not a listing artifact.
OP13 Carrying on His Will (+6.7% value, −2.4% median) is the divergence to understand. The set's value rose almost entirely because the €25,000 Manga Luffy OP13-118 reprinted a €27,000 ask — off 3 recorded sales and four price changes in seven weeks. Meanwhile 29 of 53 liquid OP13 cards fell, including Sabo's Wanted Poster OP13-120 at −53% and the alt-art Shanks OP13-028 at −50%. The set got more expensive and less healthy in the same month.
OP11 A Fist of Divine Speed shows the same split in reverse: median card only −1.4%, but set value −20.2%, because one SSP Luffy (OP05-119, pulled from OP11 packs) fell €9,500 → €5,100. One card, one fifth of a set's tracked value. OP05 (−17.9% value) is the same phenomenon — its Manga Luffy slid €15,500 → €11,500.
OP09 (+10.2%), EB01 (+12.2%) and OP10 (+2.8%) are the three sets whose aggregates rose, and all three did it on chase-card prints while their median card was flat-to-negative. EB01's entire gain is the Manga Chopper EB01-006 at €3,949 → €4,500. OP10 is the healthiest of the three: +2.8% value on a −5.8% median, 3,275 copies traded, nothing dramatic in either direction.
The old sets (OP01–OP04, OP06–OP08) are inert. Median moves between −4.7% and 0.0%, low volume, and value swings driven by single high-end listings — OP01 shows −11.3% purely because the Manga Shanks OP01-120 went €3,300 → €2,600. OP08 Two Legends was the only balanced set in the game: 12 up, 12 down, 0.0% median. If you want a picture of a set that has finished finding its price, that is it.
The reprint boosters split. PRB01 (−0.6% median) held up better than almost anything, while PRB02 The Best Vol.2 (−4.5% median, 10 up / 32 down) kept sliding even as its aggregate printed +9.7% — and it was the second-most-traded product in the game at 7,783 copies. High volume, falling median, rising headline: PRB02 is the set where reading the wrong number will hurt you most. EB03 Heroines Edition (−9.9% median) was quietly one of the weaker sets, down 21 of 31, its aggregate flattered to −2.2% by the top end.
Starter decks were the worst corner of the market. ST01 Straw Hat Crew led the whole game down at −20.0% median (1 up, 10 down, −21.7% value). ST03 −21.5%, ST13 Three Brothers −24.6%, ST29 Egghead −19.6%, ST30 EX Luffy & Ace −15.7%, ST21 EX Gear 5 −14.6%, ST26 −29.7%. The exceptions are tiny-float curiosities rather than trends: ST02 Worst Generation +31.5% and ST10 Three Captains +104.8% on set values of €114 and €17 respectively. Below roughly ST05 the decks trade for a couple of euros in total and their percentages are meaningless — ST05, ST07, ST08, ST09, ST11, ST18, ST19, ST20, ST24, ST25 and ST27 all sat completely unchanged.
OP17: the market front-ran the release, then got out
The World's Strongest Warriors released on 28 August. Its singles barely exist in our data yet — the first OP17 card price landed on 30 August, and only one OP17 card had a price on or before 31 August. We track 177 of them now, but any single-card number you see this week is a launch-week ask against near-zero supply. Rocks.D.Xebec OP17-118 is quoted at €11,000; treat that as a placeholder, not a price.
The sealed market, though, told a complete story in August, and it is the most actionable thing in this report:
- OP17 Booster Box: €299 (25 Jul) → €435 peak (4 Aug) → €280 on release day → €250 today. That is −36% from peak to release and −43% to now. Anyone who bought the pre-release hype at the start of August is down more than a third in five weeks.
- Booster Box Case: €4,000 → €5,000 peak (4 Aug) → €3,700 on release → €3,600. Same shape, −28% from peak.
- Single sealed pack: €9.95 → €14.45 → €6 on release day → €5. The purest version of the curve.
Every one of those peaked on 4 August — 24 days before the set existed — and fell every week after. This is the same pattern we documented in our release-timing study, now playing out in real time on a set you can still act on. Pre-release sealed prices are speculation on scarcity that has not happened yet; release day is when the scarcity question gets answered, and the answer is usually "there is plenty."
As of publication we have finished seeding OP17's rarities and pull rates, so OPMT scores are live for the set. For the record, here is what OP17 actually contains: 5 Manga rares (Newgate OP17-005, Shanks OP17-022, Kaido OP17-062, Luffy OP17-079, Linlin OP17-112), 2 SSPs — Rocks.D.Xebec OP17-118 and the Luffy reprint EB04-061, the two €11,000 cards — 2 SECs (OP17-118 again, plus Loki OP17-119), 1 Treasure Rare (Newgate OP17-040), 25 alt arts of which 6 are Leader parallels, and 11 SP reprints of cards from older sets — including Luffy ST31-004, Shanks OP13-028 and Yamato OP16-098, which is why OP-, ST-, P- and EB04-numbered cards keep showing up in OP17 pack odds.
One number worth knowing before you chase anything: at 5 Manga rares in the set, the odds on any specific one are roughly 1 in 5,760 packs. The two SSPs sit near 1 in 2,592, and a given alt art is about 1 in 500. Those are the pull rates now feeding the Long-Term score for every OP17 card.
Rarity tiers: alt arts took the damage
Grouped by our rarity tags (not TCGGO's rarity field, which we do not trust), on liquid cards only:
| Tier | Cards | Median move | Up / Down | Median range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treasure Rare | 9 | −9.1% | 1 / 8 | 30% |
| Alt Art | 341 | −7.5% | 44 / 222 | 20% |
| Manga Event | 15 | −6.6% | 3 / 11 | 19% |
| No special tag | 68 | −5.9% | 19 / 38 | 25% |
| Leader Alt Art | 106 | −5.5% | 22 / 70 | 22% |
| Secret Rare | 21 | −5.0% | 5 / 12 | 17% |
| SSP | 40 | −3.1% | 11 / 23 | 20% |
| SP | 90 | −2.9% | 25 / 51 | 14% |
| Manga | 33 | −0.2% | 11 / 16 | 25% |
| Wanted Poster | 12 | 0.0% | 4 / 5 | 75% |
Alt arts are the tier that matters and the tier that fell. 341 liquid cards — by far the largest measurable group, and the one most ordinary collectors actually own — with 222 down against 44 up and a −7.5% median. Leader alt arts were nearly as bad at 70 down against 22. Meanwhile the ultra-rare tiers look almost unscathed (Manga −0.2%, Wanted Poster 0.0%), and their range column explains why: Wanted Posters swung a median of 75% during the month. Their "stability" is measurement noise, not strength.
There is a meta signal buried here too. A striking share of the worst alt-art losses carry our TOP16 tournament tag — Sakazuki, Mr.3, Shanks, Luffy, Shiryu, Marco (PRB02-008, −41%) and the event card Gravity Blade Raging Tiger (OP06-058, −47%). Cards that are expensive because they are currently good are the cards that fall when the format shifts. That is a different risk profile from a card that is expensive because it is scarce and beloved, and it is worth pricing differently in your own scoring weights.
Sealed went up while singles went down
The cleanest divergence of the month. Across 137 sealed products with data at both ends, value rose from €135,199 to €137,252 (+1.5%), with 63 products up and 29 down — positive breadth, the exact inverse of singles.
And the split within sealed is directional: old sealed rose, new sealed fell. The OP08 Two Legends Booster Box Case gained +38.8% (€1,800 → €2,499) and its single box +27.8%; OP12 boxes +26.1%, OP10 +25.8%, the OP16 case +25.0%. The pre-release starter decks for ST02 (+60.2%) and ST04 (+50.0%) — genuinely scarce collector items — were the largest percentage gainers in the game. On the other side: OP11 boxes −24.8%, EB02 boxes −13.3%, the OP17 case −13.1%, EB01 boxes −10.9%, OP02 boxes −7.1%.
The pattern is coherent. Sealed product from sets that stopped being printed years ago behaves like a scarce asset. Sealed product from sets still flowing out of distribution behaves like inventory. August rewarded the first and punished the second, while the singles market fell across the board.
Where the volume actually was
We detected roughly 81,467 copies sold across 2,577 cards in August. But of the 4,454 cards we track, only 2,439 recorded a single sale all month — 45% of the tracked market did not trade at all. That is worth internalising before you assume any listed price is a price you could get.
Volume is also brutally concentrated in the newest sets: OP16 (13.8%), PRB02 (9.6%), OP15 (9.0%), OP13 (8.7%) and OP14 (8.0%) are 49% of all recorded trades between them. The ten most-traded cards were OP16-118 Ace (697 copies), OP16-119 Teach (682), OP16-056 Mr.3 (413), OP13-118 Luffy (393), OP16-001 Ace (379), OP16-015 Luffy (367), OP16-098 Yamato (364), OP16-032 Hancock (361), EB04-058 Borsalino (357) and OP14-084 Ms. All Sunday (345). Note that Mr.3 and Sakazuki appear on both the most-traded and worst-performing lists — that combination, high volume into falling prices, is distribution, and it is the single most useful pattern on this page.
The version trap: same card, opposite directions
If you take one practical lesson from August, take this one. Monkey.D.Luffy OP05-119 exists as seven tracked printings. In the same month:
- SSP from OP11 packs: €9,500 → €5,100 (−46%)
- Manga from OP05 packs: €15,500 → €11,500 (−26%)
- Alt art from PRB01: €303 → €225 (−26%), a steady daily bleed
- Alt art from OP05: €215 → €175 (−19%)
- Alt art from PRB01 (the €7,800 print): a full round trip — €7,800 up to €12,500 on 19 August, back to €7,600 by 2 September
Same character, same card number, five outcomes ranging from −46% to a round trip. Which printing you own matters more than which card you own. This is why we credit every version to the set whose packs actually contain it, and why "OP05-119 is up" is a meaningless sentence without the printing attached.
Two identical-looking +500% cards. One was real.
Our raw gainer list had two near-identical entries: the Wanted Poster Ace OP13-119 at €100 → €600 (+500%) and the Wanted Poster Luffy OP05-119 at €100 → €549 (+449%). Only one of them happened.
Ace was real. It sat at €100 every single day from 1 to 20 August, then stepped to €600 on the 22nd and has held €539–€650 ever since, with 11 copies detected sold during the month. That is a genuine market event: an underpriced listing that finally cleared, after which the floor reset to where the card was actually worth. If you had it on a watchlist, that was a €500 arbitrage sitting in plain sight for three weeks.
Luffy was not. Its daily series reads €650, €550, €599, €550, €100, €599, €100, €520, €599, €150, €549. The card lived around €550 all month with occasional one-day spikes down to €100 — and 1 August happened to be one of them. There was no rally. There was a badly-timed snapshot.
The difference is only visible in the daily series, which is exactly why we stopped trusting two-point comparisons for this report — and why the short-term deal views are built on rolling offer snapshots rather than month-end prices.
What we excluded
Two cards appeared in our raw results as catastrophic losses and are not real: Shanks OP12-008 (€8.49 → €0.02) and Monkey.D.Garp OP02-002 (€126.64 → €0.79). In both cases the regular and alt-art versions had their upstream listings swapped mid-month — you can see the mirror image in the data, where the regular Shanks simultaneously jumped from €0.02 to €7.94 on 28 August. We have excluded both from every figure above and flagged them for repair. We would rather tell you what we threw out than quietly publish a −100%.
What to watch in September
- OP17 singles finding a floor. Launch-week asks mean nothing. The number to wait for is the first two weeks of real sales volume in mid-September — and, based on the sealed curve, expect prices below the current quotes, not above.
- OP16 is deep in its supply flood. 1 up, 30 down, and the highest volume in the game. This is the accumulation window we flagged in July, and it is not finished — the inflection to watch for is volume staying high while the median stops falling.
- The alt-art tier is the market's health indicator. 222 down against 44 up is a broad-based derating, not a rotation. If September prints a second month like it, that is a trend rather than a digestion of OP17 supply.
- Sealed versus singles. August was the first month these two moved in opposite directions. If old sealed keeps rising while singles fall, the money is choosing scarcity over playability — and that changes which cards deserve premiums.
- Ignore the index. Seriously. With 85% of tracked value in 79 thinly-listed cards, the aggregate will keep printing numbers that have nothing to do with your collection. Watch the median and the breadth.
Methodology: prices are the cheapest listed NM English copy on CardMarket per card version. Headline figures compare 1 August to 31 August 2026 across the 3,819 cards with data at both endpoints. "Liquid" cards are those starting above €5 with at least 20 priced days in the month; "genuine" movers additionally require 25+ priced days, a move of at least 12%, and an intra-month range under 2.5× the net move. Median card figures use liquid cards only, since the median card overall is a €0.02 bulk common. Set values are the sum of cheapest copies across a set's tracked versions, each credited to the set whose packs actually contain it (per the printed expansion, not the card number). Sales volumes are detections from offer-book monitoring, net of re-listing corrections — treat them as upper-bound estimates. Two cards with known version-mapping errors were excluded and are named above. High-end prices reflect very thin markets where a single re-listing moves the floor. This report is informational only and not financial advice.